Winning Bizness Sports Desk

In its third week now, the 50-overs format (ODI) World Cup is nearing its business end and discussions are veering around towards the teams most likely to make it to the last four.

One needs to wait for at least a week more before making a final prediction about the semi-final contenders during which time all teams will finish playing one more round of games. However, present form and performance indicates that three teams are near certainties for the semi-finals. It is the fourth spot which is still up for grabs.

As Australia regroups and rediscovers its mojo, it is beginning to look good and cricket afficionados are beginning to bet on it. But the Aussies still have to win most if not all of their games before they are assured of a last four spot. And they have some tough games coming up such as the ones against England and New Zealand.

Wins here will see them through while a loss could bring it all down to net run rates. Australia would like to avoid that and the way it is beginning to play now, it looks like Australia is fast putting behind it its earlier dismal performances.

Pakistan which was considered a favourite to win the World Cup prior to the start of the tournament is now struggling to stay afloat. Theoretically, it is still possible for Pakistan to qualify for the semi-finals but its defeats to India, Australia and Afghanistan have made its task very difficult indeed.

Australia’s wins against Pakistan and Sri Lanka after earlier losses to India and South Africa have helped it get its World Cup campaign back on track.

India, South Africa and New Zealand are, however, marching ahead ruthlessly and if they keep up their present level of performance, they should have no difficulty in making it to the semi-finals.

There are tough opponents ahead to overcome for all three but they have got the points on the board and so a loss in one game here or there will not do any great damage to their prospects.

As on Thursday October 26, India, South Africa and New Zealand have got ten, eight and eight points, respectively. India has won all of its five matches so far while the other two are just behind India with four wins out of five matches.

Pakistan which was considered a favourite to win the World Cup prior to the start of the tournament is now struggling to stay afloat. Theoretically, it is still possible for Pakistan to qualify for the semi-finals but its defeats to India, Australia and Afghanistan have made its task very difficult indeed.

The whole of Pakistan was expecting an easy Pakistani victory against Afghanistan and with it two points on the board. The stunning and big defeat has, however, pushed Pakistan to the brink of exit from the World Cup. With strong teams as opponents in the coming days—South Africa on October 27, New Zealand on November 4 and England on November 11—Pakistan will need a miracle to qualify. In between, there is another tricky match against Bangladesh as well on October 31—this won’t be an easy match either.

The team does not appear united—there are reports of rifts amongst senior players. There is talk of replacing Babar Azam as captain post this World Cup. This type of talk swirling around the team will only demoralise it further.

Pakistan has its work cut out if it wants to enter the semi-finals. As the old cliché goes, anything is possible in cricket, the game being one of glorious uncertainties. However, realistically speaking, Pakistan does not seem to have the wherewithal to defeat strong opponents and enter the semi-finals.

One team that has won hearts with its performances so far and which could put its stamp firmly on this World Cup with its exciting cricket (though it may not enter the semi-finals) is Afghanistan. It has registered two stunning wins, both against heavyweights—England and Pakistan.

England, the defending champion, presently does not look like qualifying for the semi-finals. A series of defeats beginning with New Zealand in the inaugural match of this World Cup, followed by heavy defeats to South Africa and unbelievably to Afghanistan (which has also shocked Pakistan) has rendered its position very precarious indeed.

One more defeat could send it out of this tournament—it now only has a theoretical chance of reaching the semi-finals. On Thursday (October 26), Sri Lanka walloped England—winning its match by eight wickets and with over 24-overs to spare.

With strong opposition ahead in India, Australia and Pakistan, England has only defeated Bangladesh, another team sailing in the same boat as the former. The defending champion has one match against the Netherlands, a weaker team on paper, but it must be remembered that the European team is no pushover; it has played gritty cricket so far and also managed to jolt South Africa.

Therefore, it won’t be a walkover for England against the Netherlands and going by the way both teams are playing now, cricket afficionados will not be shocked if the Netherlands manages to put it across England.

One team that has won hearts with its performance so far and which could put its stamp firmly on this World Cup with its performances (though it may not enter the semi-finals) is Afghanistan. It has registered two stunning wins, both against heavyweights—England and Pakistan.

Afghanistan has two matches against not-so-strong teams going forward—against the Netherlands and Sri Lanka, though the last-named will definitely not like being labelled as such. Its other encounters are against powerful teams—Australia and South Africa. Upsets are possible and fans will be looking forward to upsets but realistically speaking Afghanistan does not seem to possess the firepower to put it across the two biggies. It could, however, win more hearts with its spirited performances.

But after Thursday’s very convincing victory against England, Sri Lanka has managed to hang on in the tournament. This big win will do a world of good to its net run rate and if the team can get its act together in the remaining games, Sri Lanka can transform itself into a team to reckon with in the later stages of this World Cup.

New Zealand and South Africa are chugging along smoothly with just one defeat so far, the former losing to India and South Africa to the Netherlands. However, despite these defeats both are on course to enter the last four.

Both the teams’ batting and bowling have clicked and their fielding has been, as usual, of a very high standard. The Kiwis have discovered a young prodigy in Rachin Ravindra who can serve them for a long time. Their seniors such as Trent Boult, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham, Mitchell Santner and Matt Henry, among others, have all contributed to the team’s cause and this is the reason why New Zealand finds itself in the comfortable zone today.

The same is the case with South Africa where Quinton de Kock has led the way with sterling knocks. Aiden Markram is in sparkling form and so is Heinrich Klaasen who has been the revelation so far. In fact, the last few months have seen Klaasen emerge as the new superstar in the limited overs format.

Their batting collapsed against the Netherlands but such a collapse cannot be expected every time. The team has put up scores above 400 once (Sri Lanka), 300 thrice (against Australia, Bangladesh and England) and fell below 210 (against the Netherlands) only once.

Here a point that needs highlighting is that South Africa scored 399 runs against England, setting a target of 400 runs for Engand of which the latter only managed 170.

Their bowling spearheaded by Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen and backed-up superbly by Lungi Ngidi and Keshav Maharaj has been very difficult to put away. Rabada has rediscovered his form and Marco Jansen has supported him brilliantly. Keshav Maharaj has picked up wickets at crucial times helping their cause further.

A word about Jansen is in order here. The 23-year-old tall, left-arm fast bowler has shown why he is nowadays rated as a top all-rounder rather than as just a bowler who can bat a little. His brilliant 75 not out against England at the Wankhede in Mumbai marks him out as a full-fledged all-rounder and with age on his side and barring injuries, he can serve South Africa for more than a decade.

Much was expected of Sri Lanka but though it up a spirited fight against both South Africa and Pakistan, it lost both these games and with only one win against the Netherlands, its World Cup was stuttering till its match against England which it won. Sri Lanka’s record before this match read three losses and only one win.

But after Thursday’s very convincing victory against England, it has managed to hang on in the tournament. This big win will do a world of good to its net run rate and if the team can get its act together in the remaining games, Sri Lanka can transform itself into a team to reckon with in the later stages of this World Cup.

Rabada has rediscovered his form and Marco Jansen has supported him brilliantly. Keshav Maharaj has picked up wickets at crucial times helping South Africa’s cause further. Lungi Ngidi has lent a useful hand as well, picking up crucial wickets and pegging the opposition back.

However, it has two tough games ahead, against India and New Zealand but equally it has two relatively easier games on hand as well, against Bangladesh and Afghanistan. If Sri Lanka wins both of these and one more, then it too will emerge as a contender for a semi-final spot. The huge win against England will help propel its net run rate.

Bangladesh and the Netherlands have only pride to play for. Much was expected of Bangladesh but the team has failed to live up to its fans’ expectations. One hopes they put up spirited performances in their forthcoming matches.

The semi-final picture will be clearer by the end of next week. But three teams—India, New Zealand and South Africa—are leading the race presently. An interesting contest, however, lies ahead for the fourth spot.