Winning Bizness Economic Desk

The country’s rice production in this year’s (2025) kharif season is estimated at a record 124.50-million tonnes. This is 1.73-million tonnes more than last year’s (2024) kharif season, the first advance estimate of foodgrains production for the 2025-26 crop season stated.

The overall kharif food grains production for 2025-26 is estimated at 173.33-million tonnes, which is around 3.9-million tonnes more than the kharif season of last year.

Production of maize in the kharif season is expected to be around 28.30-million tonnes, which is about 3.5-million tonnes more than in the same year-ago period.

Here, it must be noted that the crop season extends from July to June.

The sowing for kharif crops commences with the beginning of the monsoon season around June. The harvesting begins from October onwards.

The country’s agriculture minister Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan pointed out that though there was excessive rainfall in some parts of the country and that though this affected crop production to some extent, most areas have benefited significantly. This has led to an overall good crop growth, he said.

Total kharif pulses production is projected at 7.41-million tonnes, marginally south of the 7.73-million tonnes of last year. The kharif oilseeds production is estimated at 27.56-million tonnes. This is slightly lower than the 28.02-million tonnes of last year, according to the first advance estimate.

An important point to note here is that these estimates are based on yield trends from previous years, other ground-level inputs and field observations. These estimates will be revised as actual yield data starts arriving, an official statement said.

Russia Becomes Largest Sunflower Oil Exporter to India

Russia has now become the largest exporter of sunflower oil to India after overtaking Ukraine which was the previous biggest exporter to India of the commodity.

A significant point to be noted here is that Russian sunflower oil exports have exceeded Ukraine’s exports to India by 12 times in the last four years.

Since the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, the latter’s sunflower oil exports have been largely diverted to Europe. This move gave Russia the opportunity to tap the large market in India.

A major advantage enjoyed by Russia is that it has an easier and assured access to sea-ports and this made it a better seller for India.

What requires highlighting here is that sunflower oil is the most consumed oil in India, with only five per cent of it sourced locally.

Solvent Extractors’ Association of India’s president Mr Sanjeev Asthana said that presently Russia was the largest and most reliable source of sunflower oil globally. By trading with Russia, India enjoys the advantage of supply-chain reliability, he said.

Russia’s share in India’s total sunflower oil imports has climbed up steeply from around just 10 per cent in 2021 to a staggering 56 per cent in 2024.

During 2024, India imported 2.09-million tonnes of sunflower oil from Russia, a 12-fold vault from the imports of 2021.

Ukraine was the largest sunflower oil exporter to India till 2022 when its war with Russia began.

India relies on imports to meet nearly 60 per cent of its cooking oil requirements. Palm oil comprises about half of the country’s total consumption, followed in the second spot by soybean and then by sunflower oil.

India Likely to Become USD 4-trn Economy by FY 26

India is likely to attain the USD 4-trillion mark (economy) by January next year (2026). This creditworthy achievement will be achieved despite the country’s economy growing more slowly in current prices due to declining inflation as well as in USD terms, owing to a considerably weaker exchange rate.

Some economists and financial sector experts estimate that even if nominal GDP slows to eight per cent growth in the current fiscal, it will still translate into a Rs 357-trillion economy.

Importantly, this is almost the same as the FY 26 budget estimate of a Rs 356.97-trillion economy.

They estimate that assuming the Rupee averages Rs 88 to a dollar this year, the country could still reach the USD 4-trillion mark in January 2026.

The first-quarter (Q1) GDP data has already demonstrated a slowdown in India’s nominal GDP growth rate to 8.8 per cent against 10.1 per cent in the FY 26 budget.

This growth rate could slide further in the current fiscal to around eight per cent, these economists and financial sector experts estimate.

India, however, might take over two years to become an USD 5-trillion economy as lower inflation and a weak currency (Re) could delay this achievement.

According to them, India could attain this achievement only by FY 29 instead of FY 27 as previously thought.

Here, it must be pointed out that the finance ministry, in January 2024, had estimated that the country could likely achieve the USD 5-trillion milestone in three years (2027).

The finance ministry had then said: “In the next three years, India is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world with a GDP of USD 5-trillion. India can also aspire to become an USD 7-trillion economy by 2030 under a reasonable set of assumptions with respect to inflation and the exchange rate.”

Adani Grp to Invest Rs 63,000-cr in Two Major Power Projects in Assam

India’s leading blue-chip conglomerate, the Adani Group, will invest about Rs 63,000-crore in the north-eastern state of Assam to build major power projects.

This includes the north-east’s largest private coal-fired plant and new pumped-storage facilities.

In a statement, the group spearheaded by Mr Gautam Adani said that its energy companies have received Letters of Award from the state government for two large power projects in Assam.

Adani Power Limited will put in roughly Rs 48,000-crore to build a 3,200 MW greenfield ultra super-critical thermal plant under the Design, Build, Finance, Own and Operate (DBFOO).

The company won the project with a tariff bid of Rs 6.30 per kWh (per unit) and has secured coal-linkage with the Centre’s SHAKTI policy.

The plant will be commissioned in phases from December 2030 and is expected to generate 20,000-to-25,000 jobs during the construction and about 3,500 in operations.

Adani Green Energy Ltd, the group’s renewable energy company, will invest around Rs 15,000-crore in two Pumped Storage Projects (PSPs) with a combined capacity of 2,700 MW.

The total employment during the project phase across both investments would be about 30,000, the Group said, adding that the investments aligned with the group’s chairman Mr Gautam Adani’s earlier pledge to invest Rs 50,000-crore in the region.

India’s Net FDI Negative for Second Straight Month in September

The latest data from India’s apex bank—the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)—showed that the country’s net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow in September stood at a negative USD 2.4-billion.

This meant that more investment departed the country than entered it and this has happened for the second straight month in September.

This means that the sum of money repatriated by foreign companies from India and investments abroad by Indian companies was USD 2.4-billion more than the foreign investment entering India in September of this year, according to the data.

The gross FDI entering India stood at USD 6.6-billion in September 2025, about 4.3 per cent higher than in September last year. In fact, this amount was 9.1 per cent higher than it was in August.

However, these relatively strong inflows were outpaced by the outflows, particularly when it came to foreign investments done by Indian companies.

An important point to note here is that while repatriation of profits by foreign companies doing business in India slid south by 0.2 per cent in September of this year to USD 5.2-billion, the amount invested abroad by Indian companies expanded 64.4 per cent to USD 3.8-billion during the same period.

Combined, a total of USD 9-billion of direct investment left the country in September 2025 as compared to the USD 6.6-billion that entered it in that particular month.

Therefore, the difference between these two figures—the net FDI amount—amounted to a negative USD 2.4-billion.

Here, it must be pointed out that the net FDI figure was negative in the previous month of August as well at minus USD 0.6-billion.