Winning Bizness Economic Desk

The Indian economy is likely to expand 7.4 per cent in FY 26, the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) said.

The growth will be propelled by the positive impact of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate rationalisation and a strong domestic demand. The 7.4 per cent number is a big raise from its April estimate of a much lower 6.6 per cent.

“Largely on the back of a robust public sector investment, revival in domestic consumption, demand in both rural and urban areas, GST rate rationalisation and the external sector, especially the US, performing to its potential, the economy is expected to clock this robust growth,” it said.

According to NIPFP’s latest mid-year economic review, if the US output stays one per cent above potential, then India’s GDP could expand by 8.8 per cent this fiscal but if the US output remains one per cent below potential, then the country’s growth may slow to six per cent.

The organisation which comes under the finance ministry has projected retail inflation at 1.6 per cent this fiscal on the back of declining food inflation.

However, it warned of rising consumer inflation, driven by higher prices of gold and silver and persistently elevated edible oil inflation.

“Our inflation projection is quite lower than the 2.6 per cent estimated by the RBI. Inflation is expected to remain 1.1 per cent in Q3 and 0.8 per cent in Q4,” the review said.

According to NIPFP, India will remain one of the fastest-growing major economies in FY 26 even amid global uncertainties.

India’s Forex Reserves Rises USD 31.76-bn in H1 FY 26

The country’s foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 31.76-billion between April-to-September to USD 700.09-billion. In the same period, the share of gold in the overall forex reserves climbed up to 14 per cent from 12 per cent, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed.

Here, it must be mentioned that although the US Dollar and the Euro are both intervention currencies and Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs) are maintained in major currencies, foreign exchange reserves are denominated and expressed in US Dollar terms.

Movements in the FCA occur mainly on account of purchase and sale of foreign exchange by the Reserve Bank, income arising out of the deployment of the foreign exchange reserves, external aid receipts of the Central Government and changes on account of re-evaluation of the assets.

India’s Sugar Output Up 48 Per Cent, Says Industry Body

The country’s sugar production has gathered momentum with mills producing 1.05-million metric tonnes (MT) of sugar since the 2025-26 season commenced on October 1.

This is a 48 per cent climb as compared to the same period last year, industry body—the National Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) said.

Pan-India, 325 mills have started operations so far, the NFCSF said. This is a significant northward movement from the 144 mills that operated during the corresponding period last year.

The country’s net sugar production in the new season is expected to increase to 31.5-million tonnes.

An important point to note here is that this is even after the diversion of 3.5-million metric tonnes for ethanol production as cane supplies have improved, the industry body said in a statement.

Sugar consumption in the country is estimated at around 29-million tonnes which could enable the government to export two-million tonnes or scale it up to even 2.5-million tonnes in the new season.

India is the world’s second largest sugar producer. It has now allowed mills to export 1.5-million tonnes of sugar in the new season.

Paras Defence Bags DRDO Order for Rs 71.68-crore

Paras Defence and Space Technologies Ltd has said that it has bagged a Rs 71.68-crore order from the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

The order involves the supply of two Optronic Periscopes for submarine applications. The order is to be completed by September of next year (2026).

Optronic Periscopes are advanced electro-optical systems that provide submarines with enhanced surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting capabilities. The periscope plays a critical role in strengthening the operational readiness of the Indian Navy.

This contract underscores Paras Defence’s expanding role in supplying high-precision indigenous technologies for the country’s strategic platforms.

The company, with over four decades of experience, has been involved in developing technologies for rockets, missiles, naval systems and electronic warfare.

Delhi’s Khan Market Slips One Spot in Global Ranking

Khan Market in Delhi, the capital of India, has slipped one spot in global rankings this year from the 23rd to 24th spot. However, it has retained its position as the country’s most expensive high-street retail location with rents moving northward three per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) to around Rs 22,000 per sq ft per year (USD 223 per sq ft).

This is according to Cushman & Wakefield’s flagship retail report Main Streets Across the World.

Some transactions in prime stretches of Khan Market cross Rs 2,200 per sq ft per month, depending on factors such the exact store location, frontage and which side of the market the unit is on.

As many as 58 per cent of tracked retail streets witnessed rent increases, which, the report attributes to demand exceeding supply.

Here, it must be pointed out that the world’s most expensive retail destination is London’s New Bond Street. The London place has pushed behind it two premium locales—Milan’s Via Montenapoleone and New York’s Upper Fifth Avenue.

The Cushman & Wakefield report observed that rental growth in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region slid southward to 2.1 per cent this year from 2.8 per cent last year (2024). However, a point to note here is that performance varied widely across markets.

With respect to India, its Tier 1 cities led the rental growth in the APAC region. Ranking 26th was Galleria Market of Gurugram, north India with a steep 25 per cent vault in rents.

Gurugram was followed by Connaught Place in neighbouring Delhi also at 26 (plus 14 per cent) and Mumbai’s Kemps Korner at 34th (plus 10 per cent).

According to the report, rental growth averaged six per cent YoY across 16 tracked Indian locations.

What requires highlighting here is that APAC’s most affordable main street is also in India—Anna Nagar in the southern metropolis of Chennai where rents remain at a much lower USD 25 per sq ft per year.

Russia To Soon Approve Nearly 25 Indian Fishery Units for Exports

Russia is on course to approve nearly 25 fishery units in India which will make them eligible to supply to the country, India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Mr Piyush Goyal, said.

Recently, the European Union (EU) approved 102 additional marine product units from India for exports. Russia is also on the course of approving nearly 25 fishery establishments," Mr Goyal told journalists in New Delhi.

He said that India was in talks with several other countries including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to diversify its shrimp and fish exports.

This initiative is very important for diversifying India's shrimp exports, which, presently, are adversely affected by a 50 per cent tariff imposed by the United States.

India's shrimp exports in 2024-25 were USD 4.88-billion, accounting for 66 per cent of the total seafood exports.

When asked about the progress in the talks for the proposed free trade agreement between India and the EU, Mr Goyal said: "I am very confident that in the coming months we should be able to come to an understanding with the EU, subject to sorting out some of the last mile issues which are currently under negotiations."