Winning Bizness Economic Desk

IMD Predicts Early Arrival of Monsoon This Season

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the south-west monsoon is likely to arrive on the Kerala coast on May 27. This, it is important to point out, is five days earlier than its usual onset date of June 1.

This early arrival is anticipated to positively impact the kharif sowing season provided the momentum is sustained through the coming months.

The early onset is with a model error margin of plus/minus four days, as stated by the IMD.

Historically, an early monsoon has been favourable for agriculture by boosting farm production and reservoir levels.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also predicted that the 2025 monsoon could be `above normal’ quantitatively expected to reach 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Last month, the IMD released its first official forecast for the 2025 monsoon season, predicting that this year’s rainfall could be `above normal’. This marks the second consecutive year in which the IMD has anticipated an `above normal’ monsoon.

The cumulative all India LPA for the June-to-September period rains is 87-centimetres and rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal.

The Department estimates a 59 per cent probability of the monsoon being `above normal’, a 30 per cent chance of it being `normal’ and only a two per cent likelihood of a deficient season.

These predictions play a crucial role in shaping agriculture expectations and planning.

India’s Ready-Made Garments Exports to UK Could Clock USD 1.2-bn Boost: CareEdge

The country is expected to double its market share from six per cent in 2024 to 12 per cent in the United Kingdom (UK)’s ready-made garments (RMG) imports, due to the duty removal under the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

This translates into an incremental annual export opportunity of around USD 1-1.2-billion in the near-to-medium-term, according to a report by CareEdge.

Here, a point to note is that the FTA is a game-changer for India’s RMG sector, creating a level-playing field vis-à-vis key competing nations for accessing the UK market, the report stated.

With the FTA in place, India has a clear 12 per cent duty advantage over China which holds the largest market share in the UK’s RMG imports at 25.6 per cent (as of 2004).

Other countries such as Bangladesh (which has a 19.9 per cent share), Turkey (7.9 per cent), Cambodia (5.5 per cent) and Italy (5.2 per cent) enjoy a duty-free access to the UK market, while Vietnam (5.4 per cent) and Pakistan (4.8 per cent) benefit from lower to zero tariff.

China has lost its market share in the past few years and it is expected to continue losing its share in the UK’s RMG market share due to its declining competitiveness, backed by rising labour costs and the `China plus one’ sourcing strategy adopted by global apparel brands and retailers.

However, here a point that needs consideration is that India’s major dependency on cotton-based textiles as against the relatively higher share of man-made fibres in the global RMG market may restrict the overall opportunities from the India-UK FTA to an extent, CareEdge’s Assistant Director Mr Akshay Morbiya was quoted in a media report as saying.

Presently, India exports nearly USD 1.2-billion of RMG to the United Kingdom out of its total export of USD 15-16-billion of the products.

The United Kingdom is amongst the top five RMG markets, with imports of around USD 20-billion in 2024.

Adani Grp Deploys India’s 1st Hydrogen-Based Truck for Mining Logistics

Adani Enterprises, the flagship company of the highly-diversified Adani Group, has deployed the country’s first hydrogen-powered truck for mining logistics in Chhattisgarh, equipped with smart technology and three tanks that can carry 40-tonnes of cargo for a 200-kilometres range.

The state’s chief minister Mr Vishnu Deo Sai flagged off the first truck in Raipur, end-last week.

It will be used to transport coal from the Gare Pelma III Block to the state’s power plant.

The state-owned Chhattisgarh State Power Generation Co Ltd has appointed Adani Enterprises as the mine developer and operations for the Gare Pelma III block through a competitive bidding process.

With the aim to promote cleaner transportation, the Group is developing hydrogen fuel cell battery-operated trucks, equipped with smart technology, for cargo transport in collaboration with an Indian and international energy technology firm and a major auto manufacturer, according to a company statement.

These hydrogen-powered trucks will gradually replace diesel vehicles used in the company’s logistics operations.

This project is a joint effort between Adani Natural Resources (ANR) and Adani New Industries Limited (ANIL), both of them a part of Adani Enterprises.

ANR will source hydrogen cells from ANIL which is also involved in green hydrogen, turbines, solar modules and battery manufacturing.

Hydrogen, the most abundant element, produces no harmful emissions. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles match diesel trucks in range and load capacity, but emit only water vapour and warm air with minimal noise.

Country’s Forex Reserves Slide USD 2.06-bn After Eight-Week Rally

The country’s foreign exchange reserves slid for the first time in eight weeks, falling by USD 2.06-billion to USD 686.06-billion in the week ending May 2, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.

What needs highlighting here is that this marks a pause in the country’s recent rally in forex accumulation and reflects movements in key components such as gold reserves and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The southward movement comes after reserves had increased by USD 1.98-billion to USD 688.13-billion in the week ending April 25.

Despite a USD 514-million increase in Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs)—the largest component of the forex reserves—to USD 581.18-billion, the overall rally was dragged down by an USD 2.55-billion southward movement in gold holdings, now valued at USD 81.82-billion.

The Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) also slid by USD 30-million to settle at USD 18.56-billion.

The decline has been attributed to dynamic central bank interventions in the currency markets. India’s central bank has continued its strategy of stabilising the India Rupee by selling US dollars during phases of currency depreciation and buying during periods of strength.

The country’s reserves had peaked at a record high of USD 704.89-billion in September 2023 before gradually correcting.

The Reserve Bank estimates that the current reserves are adequate to cover nearly 10-12-months of projected imports—a crucial indicator of macro-economic resilience.

India continues to hold its reserves mainly in US dollars, with smaller allocations in Euros, Yen and the Pound.

Maha Govt Inks MoUs Worth Rs 8,000-cr at Wave Summit

The Maharashtra government signed five Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) worth Rs 8,000-crore with two foreign universities and visual effects companies in the WAVE summit held recently.

This move will help to generate 5,000 direct and 20,000 indirect jobs in the state.

The state government inked the partnership with DNEG-Prime Focus Limited, a global leader in visual effects and post-production services recently.

This partnership is expected to contribute significantly to Maharashtra’s growing reputation as a centre for film and digital media production.

Maharashtra’s chief minister Mr Devendra Fadnavis said that the MoU with the visual effects company would infuse Rs 3,000-crore and will create 2,500 employment opportunities in the media and jobs sector.

Mr Fadnavis said that this is a crucial step in fostering the state’s position as a leader in the global media and entertainment landscape.

The chief minister also inked two MoUs with the two foreign universities that are the University of York and University of Western Australia.

He said that this move will make Maharashtra as an educational hub.