Winning Bizness Economic Desk

India is set to retain its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy with a projected GDP growth rate of 6.5 per cent in 2025-26, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This forecast is driven by strong private investment and macro-economic stability. A point to note here is that this highlights India’s economic resilience despite global uncertainties.

The IMF’s assessment follows the Indian government’s second advance estimate, which also pegged growth at 6.5 per cent for 2024-25.

“Real GDP growth is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 2025-26, supported by robust growth in private consumption on the back of sustained macro-economic and financial stability,” the IMF said.

While the country’s growth momentum remains strong, the IMF emphasised the need for comprehensive structural reforms to sustain long-term expansion.

“Efforts should focus on implementing labour market reforms, strengthening human capital and supporting greater participation of women in the labour force,” the report stated.

Despite some moderation in growth, the country’s economy has remained resilient, with a six per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) GDP growth recorded in the first-half (H1) 2024-25.

The financial sector remains strong with non-performing loans at multi-year lows, the IMF pointed out, adding that fiscal consolidation efforts have continued and the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has remained well contained, aided by robust service exports.

The IMF’s latest assessment highlights the country’s economic strength while urging continued reforms to secure long-term prosperity and achieve its ambition of becoming an advanced economy by 2047.

India’s real GDP growth expanded to 6.2 per cent in the October-to-December 2024 period (Q3 FY 25), up from 5.6 per cent in the previous quarter (Q2) driven by rising consumption demand, according to quarterly GDP estimates from the National Statistics Office (NSO) released in late February.

In comparison, GDP had grown 9.5 per cent in Q3 of 2023-24. For the full financial year (FY 25), the second advance estimates peg GDP growth at 6.5 per cent, slightly higher than the 6.4 per cent projected in January’s first advance estimates.

65-cr Pilgrims, Rs 3-lakh-cr Revenue from Maha Kumbh

The recently-concluded Maha Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj (in Uttar Pradesh) is expected to boost consumption demand and help push up India’s GDP growth this fiscal (FY 25).

The Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Mr V Anantha Nageswaran has highlighted the role the Maha Kumbh Mela has played in improving the country’s economic performance, stating that the Maha Kumbh Mela will help the country achieve the 6.5 per cent GDP growth target for this fiscal.

“Hard to put a number to it but the Kumbh Mela will offer a significant boost to consumption expenditure in the March quarter,” said the CEA, emphasising the importance of this mega event on the country’s economic growth.

The Kumbh Mela is the world’s largest religious congregation, which attracted crores of devotees from across the world. It is expected to make a substantial contribution to India’s GDP, helping to achieve the projected 6.5 per cent growth target for FY 25.

The CEA Mr Nageswaran’s remarks came even as government data revealed that India’s GDP growth accelerated to 6.2 per cent in Q3 of this fiscal (FY 25), up from the 5.6 per cent, driven by increased rural consumption and higher government spending, according to a leading news publication.

The Maha Kumbh Mela had a budget of about Rs 12,670-crore with an initial estimate of 40-crore visitors.

However, the event far surpassed expectations, welcoming a staggering 65-crore devotees by the time the 45-day event came to an end on February 26.

The Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mr Yogi Adityanath has estimated that the Mela will add more than Rs 3-lakh-crore to the economy of the state.

The economic impact far extended beyond Prayagraj, reaching cities in the state such as Varanasi, Ayodhya and neighbouring towns.

Local businesses across a variety of sectors including hospitality, food, transport, logistics and religious supplies witnessed a jump in activity.

Industries such as textiles, healthcare, wellness services and even technology registered increased economic activity in the region.

The Uttar Pradesh government’s investment in infrastructure ahead of the Maha Kumbh Mela was substantial with Rs 5,400-crore allocated by the state government and Rs 2,100-crore from the Centre.

India’s GST Collection Up 9.1 pc to Rs 1.84-lakh-cr in Feb

The country’s gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections moved northward 9.1 per cent to about Rs 1.84-lakh-crore last month (February 2025).

According to official data, on a gross basis, the collection from Central GST (CGST) stood at Rs 35,204-crore, State GST (SGST) at Rs 43,704-crore, Integrated GST (IGST) at Rs 90,870-crore and compensation cess at Rs 13,868-crore in February.

The GST revenue from domestic transactions climbed up 10.2 per cent to Rs 1.43-lakh-crore while those from imports grew 5.4 per cent to Rs 41,702-crore during February.

The total refunds issued during February were Rs 20,889-crore, a 17.3 per cent increase over the year-ago period.

Net GST collections during February 2025 grew 8.1 per cent to about Rs 1.63-lakh-crore. The country’s gross and net GST revenues in February 2024 were Rs 1.68-lakh-crore and Rs 1.50-lakh-crore, respectively.

However, gross GST collections last month at Rs 1.84-lakh-crore are lower than the Rs 1.96-lakh-crore collected in January 2025.

Here, the point to note is that in the April-to-February (FY 25) period, gross GST collections grew 9.4 per cent to Rs 20.13-lakh-crore, while net GST collections grew 8.6 per cent to Rs 117.79-lakh-crore.

Top 10 States in Terms of GST Collected in Feb

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands registered a whopping 32 per cent vault in gross domestic Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections to Rs 52-crore, while Tripura clocked a 21 per cent jump to touch Rs 103-crore.

The northern state of Haryana collected Rs 9,925-crore, up 20 per cent, making it the fifth highest earner in the country for the month.

Himachal Pradesh (HP) too registered a major gain of 16 per cent, with a total monthly GST collection of Rs 869-crore.

However, the share of collections under Centre Jurisdiction saw the most significant growth, with Rs 336-crore collected in February 2025—a massive 45 per cent increase from the year-ago period (February 2024).

The total gross domestic GST collected by states, UTs and the Centre moved northward by 10.2 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) to around Rs 1.42-lakh-crore for the month.

Adding imports GST, the total gross GST collection in February amounted to about Rs 1.84-lakh-crore.

The top ten GST-earning states in February 2025 are Maharashtra with Rs 30,637-crore, up 13 per cent, Karnataka with Rs 14,117-crore, up 10 per cent and Gujarat with Rs 11,402-crore, up three per cent.

At fourth spot is the southern state of Tamil Nadu with Rs 10,694-crore, up 10 per cent, Haryana with Rs 9,925-crore, up 20 per cent followed by Uttar Pradesh with Rs 9,155-crore, up 14 per cent.

The national capital Delhi comes in next with Rs 6,074-crore, up 10 per cent, followed by West Bengal with Rs 5,797-crore, up eight per cent and the eastern state of Odisha with Rs 5,344-crore, up four per cent. In the tenth spot comes Telangana with Rs 5,280-crore.

On the other hand, Lakshadweep saw a staggering slide of 55 per cent to just Rs 1-crore. Other poor earners included Ladakh, down 46 per cent to Rs 19-crore and Mizoram down 16 per cent to Rs 42-crore.

The north-eastern state of Manipur too witnessed a decline of nine per cent, collecting just Rs 50-crore.