Winning Bizness Economic Desk
India’s Industrial Output Growth Slows Down to Ten-Month Low in June
The country’s industrial output expansion slid to a ten-month low of 1.5 per cent in June of this year. The drag-down was because of contraction in electricity and mining activities caused due to the early arrival of monsoon, government data showed.
The factory output as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had registered a 4.9 per cent growth in the year-ago period (June 2024).
The National Statistics Office (NSO), in its monthly report, has revised the May IIP growth data northward to 1.9 per cent from the earlier estimate of 1.2 per cent reported last month.
The point to highlight here is that IIP growth has registered a sequential slide for three consecutive months—the first time in around three-years.
Mining output in June of this year was 8.7 per cent, lower when compared with the same month last year while there was a 2.6 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) fall in electricity production.
Manufacturing output clocked a 3.9 per cent growth in June, the highest in three-months from the 3.2 per cent registered in May.
The average industrial production growth in the first three-months of the current fiscal stood at two per cent which is the lowest in five-years.
In terms of the use-based classification, the sequential slowdown in the IIP growth was driven by the sharp slide in the capital goods segment.
It dipped to an eight-month low of 3.5 per cent in June from the 13.3 per cent clocked in the previous month.
Contraction in primary goods output worsened in June reflecting the weaker performance of the mining sector. Consumer non-durables output fell by 0.4 per cent on a YoY basis during June while primary goods production moved southward by three per cent.
However, the output of consumer durables increased by 2.9 per cent in June. There was a sequential improvement in the growth of intermediate goods, infrastructure/construction goods and consumer durables.
What needs to be noted here is that barring primary goods and consumer non-durables, output growth of other use-based groups remained positive in June of this year.
Steep Rise of USD 2.7-bn in India’s Forex Reserves
The country’s foreign exchange reserves increased steeply by USD 2.703-billion to USD 698.192-billion for the week ending July 25 of this year. This northward movement follows three consecutive weeks of sliding, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed.
In the previous reporting week, India’s forex reserves slid by USD 1.18-billion to USD 695.49-billion.
In the week ending July 25, 2025, the Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs) climbed up USD 1.316-billion at USD 588.926-billion. This could be an important reason for the rise in forex reserves.
Gold reserves, a major component of the forex reserves besides FCAs, also registered a northward movement, increasing by USD 1.206-billion to USD 85.704-billion.
The country’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) rose by USD 126-million to USD 18.809-billion.
Here, it must be pointed out that central banks globally are increasingly accumulating safe haven gold in their foreign exchange reserves.
What requires highlighting here is that the share of gold presently with the RBI in its reserves has almost doubled since 2021.
India’s forex reserves are sufficient to meet 11-months of the country’s imports and about 96 per cent of external debt, the RBI’s Governor Mr Sanjay Malhotra had said recently.
Foreign exchange reserves are assets held by a country’s central bank or monetary authority, primarily in reserve currencies such as the US dollar with smaller portions in Euro, Japanese Yen and Pound Sterling.
Adani Group Plans to Invest Up to USD 10-bn in Vietnam
The Adani Group plans to invest up to USD 10-billion in the south-east nation of Vietnam. The blue-chip, highly-diversified group is keen to invest in infrastructure, energy, renewable energy and new technologies such as AI, the Vietnamese government said in a statement.
Mr Adani and Mr To Lam, the general-secretary of the Vietnam Communist Party met in Hanoi the capital of the south-east nation recently.
In a statement, Mr Adani described Vietnam as a dynamic economy and one of the region’s most attractive investment destinations.
The Vietnamese government has reportedly given an in-principle nod last year for the Adani Group to develop an USD 2-billion port in Danang, an important city in the country about 700-kilometres from Hanoi.
IMF Raises India’s FY 26, FY 27 Growth Forecast to 6.4 Per Cent
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upped India’s growth expectations to 6.4 per cent for both the fiscal years of 2025-26 and 2026-27 (FY 26 and FY 27).
The growth upgrade of 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, is in line with the upgrades for global growth.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) July update upgraded its global growth forecast to three per cent for 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026, 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points higher than what had been predicted in the April 2025 edition of the WEO.
“This reflects stronger-than-expected front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs, lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April, an improvement in financial conditions, including due to a weaker US dollar and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions,” the report stated.
However, the report also noted that although the July prediction for global growth is higher than the one made in April, it is still lower than the 3.3 per cent growth registered in 2024 and pre-Covid-19 pandemic historical average of 3.7 per cent.
“In India, growth is projected to be 6.4 per cent in 2025 and 2026 with both numbers revised slightly upward, reflecting a more benign external environment than assumed in the April reference forecast,” the report stated.
Ambuja Cements Begins FY 26 with Healthy Performance
Ambuja Cements, a part of the highly-diversified Adani Group has commenced this fiscal (FY 26) with a very healthy performance. It has clocked its highest-ever quarterly sales of 184-million tonnes, up 20 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY).
Ambuja Cements has also reported robust financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025.
The company’s market share also moved northward two percentage points to 15.5 per cent.
Its quarterly revenue breached the Rs 10,000-crore mark, up 23 per cent. An important point that requires highlighting here is that the Adani group company has achieved its highest quarterly (EBITDA) at Rs 1,961-crore, up 53 per cent YoY.
Ambuja Cements has begun this financial year on a high note, supported by value focus, volume growth, channel engagement, cost-efficiencies and well integration of the acquired assets.
In its earnings statement issued, Ambuja Cements said that by blending business re-imagination, future-ready technologies, ESG focus and deep community engagements, it is redefining scale and impact in the cement industry.
The Adani group company has a cement capacity of 104.5 MTPA across 24 integrated manufacturing plants and 22 grinding units.
Subway Opens 33 New Stores in Q1 FY 26
Subway has opened 33 new outlets across 17 cities in the country in the first-quarter of this fiscal (FY 26).
With the addition of these new outlets, Subway’s total store count now rises over 900, the company said in a statement.
The company had added fifteen new stores in the previous quarter and plans to cross 100 store openings by end-this fiscal year.
The expansion includes entry into new Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities as a part of the brand’s broader growth strategy in India, a market it continues to prioritise for long-term investments and partnerships.
India remains one of the fastest-growing markets for Subway globally and here it has focussed on product innovation aligned with evolving consumer preferences.