Winning Bizness Economic Desk

India will be the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region and the third-largest in the world by 2030, a report by PHDCCI said.

India’s economy will also expand and it will touch the USD 7-trillion mark by then, the report by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry said.

The Indian economy remains resilient despite the global headwinds and this is one important reason that the country’s economy is poised to do well going forward.

The report’s basis are the lead macroeconomic indicators such as the GDP growth, export growth, gross national savings, total investment and debt to GDP ratio.

“With a consistent GDP growth rate exceeding 7 per cent over the past two years and a projected continuation of this trend in the current year too, the economy is expected to surpass USD 4-trillion in 2024 and thereafter move to the next orbit in 2025,” a press statement issued by the PHDCCI’s President, Mr Sanjeev Agrawal, stated.

The PHDCCI also expects the inflation trajectory to average around 4.5 per cent in 2024 and the country’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to slash the repo rate by 100 basis points (bps) or one per cent, reducing it to 5.5 per cent by end-2024.

The PHDCCI report also pointed to the deepening geo-political developments and fragmentation in the commodity markets and inflationary pressures as downside risks to the country’s economy.

Vibrant Gujarat Summit 2024: MoUs for Investments Worth Rs 26.33-lakh-cr Signed

Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) for investment proposals worth Rs 26.33-lakh-crore were signed during the tenth edition of the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2024, the Gujarat Chief Minister Mr Bhupendra Patel said.

The MoUs were inked for 41,299 projects at the mega event in which more than 61,000 delegates from over 140 countries participated.

Mr Patel highlighted the fact that if the MoUs signed in 2022 but which were postponed during the Covid-19 pandemic period were also added, a total of 98,540 agreements with investment proposals worth more than Rs 45-lakh-crore were inked.

As per details registered on the official investor facilitation portal (IFP), MoUs for a total of 98,540 projects with proposed investments of Rs 45.20-lakh-crore were inked during the period between the conclusion of the ninth and tenth editions of the summit.

These included 21,536 large sector proposals making an investment intention of Rs 43.24-lakh-crore and 77,004 agreements envisaging a capital infusion of Rs 19.58-lakh-crore.

Investments were announced in various sectors but the ones which attracted the maximum investment proposals were urban development, minerals, chemicals and petrochemicals.

Information available on the IFP revealed that other important sectors which attracted robust investment proposals included animal husbandry and fishing, power, oil and gas, agro and food processing and textiles and apparels.

Apart from the above, other sectors for which MoUs were signed between February 1, 2019 and January 12, 2024 were the environment, forest and climate change, rural development and urban housing, education, engineering and auto, health-care, pharma and tourism sectors.

The President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Mr Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan was the chief guest. Presidents of three other countries also graced the occasion—they were the Presidents of Mozambique, Timore-Leste and the Czech Republic.

Mukesh Ambani Says Reliance to Build India’s First Carbon Fibre Facility in Gujarat

During the just-concluded Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2024, India’s premier group—the Reliance Industries’ Chairman Mr Mukesh Ambani said that his company would be building India’s first carbon fibre facility at Hazira in Gujarat.

This will be a world-class facility, Mr Ambani said, adding that his company would continue to work for the development of the state and aimed to make Gujarat a global leader in `green growth’.

Mr Ambani said at the summit that “Reliance was, is and will always remain a Gujarati company. Reliance has invested more than USD 150-billion (Rs12-lakh-crore) in creating world-class assets and capacities across India in the last just ten-years.”

He highlighted the fact that of the above investments, more than one-third have been invested in Gujarat alone.

His company has commenced construction of the Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy Giga Complex over 5,000-acres in Jamnagar.

This project is expected to help generate a large number of green jobs and facilitate the production of green products and materials. It would enable Gujarat to become the leading exporter of such goods and the company is ready to roll this out in the second-half of 2024, he said.

According to Mr Ambani, “no power on earth can stop India from becoming a 35-trillion dollar economy by 2047. And I see Gujarat alone will become a 3-trillion dollar economy by then,” he added.

GST Revenue Rises 10 pc YoY in December

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in December 2023 clocked a ten per cent increase on a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis at Rs 1.65-lakh-crore.

This figure is, however, a little below the average so far this year of Rs 1.66-trillion per month.

The Centre and states had garnered around Rs 1.5-trillion in December 2022.

India’s Finance Ministry said that in the April-to-December period of this fiscal year the gross GST collection expanded 12 per cent as compared to the year-ago period’s collection of Rs 14.97-trillion.

Here, it must be pointed out that the GST receipts in December 2023 is the lowest since October of the same year (at Rs 1.72-trillion).

The October collection is, incidentally, the second-highest collection after a record Rs 1.87-trillion mop-up in April 2023.

This slight reduction or moderation comes after businesses replenished supply-chains in the pre-festive months. GST collections, however, could clock an increase closer to the fiscal year-end (March 31, 2024).

A point to be highlighted here is that barring May and August, GST receipts have remained north of Rs 1.6-trillion this fiscal.

According to the Finance Ministry, after settlement of taxes for inter-state sales, the central government collected Rs 70,501-crore while states received Rs 71,587-crore in December.

In the same month, large state economies such as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh registered a revenue growth in the range of 12-to-19 per cent, the government data showed.

It must be highlighted here that as a tax on consumption, the GST revenue is seen as reflecting consumption trends in the economy in addition to administrative efforts to step up collections.

In the April-to-October period, consumer durables’ output which indicates consumer sentiment and purchasing power, had witnessed a modest 1.4 per cent growth from the year-ago period. The output of consumer non-durables, on the other hand, registered an encouraging northward movement of 7.1 per cent growth.

Production of two other segments—capital goods and construction goods—have witnessed a robust double-digit growth in the first seven-months of this fiscal.

After Several Weeks of Climbing, India’s Forex Reserves Witness a Slide

The country’s forex reserves registered a significant southward movement, declining by USD 5.89-billion to stand at USD 617.3-billion for the week ending January 5, 2024, as revealed by data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Interestingly, the reserves have slid after several weeks of growth.

According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s data, throughout this fiscal the reserves have witnessed an overall increase of USD 55.72-billion.

Here, it must be pointed out that in the week ending December 29, the reserves registered a significant climb of USD 2.759-billion to touch a peak of USD 623.2-billion. This was the highest this fiscal year (FY 24).

The week prior, again, there was a northward movement with the reserves climbing USD 4.471-billion to USD 620.441-billion. The forex reserves had touched their highest-ever level of USD 645-billion in October 2021.

The recent slide in reserves can be attributed to the Reserve Bank’s intervention in defending the national currency—the Rupee—in response to pressures stemming from global developments since the previous year.

The foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of the reserves, experienced a decline of USD 4.96-billion to USD 546.65-billion.

Gold reserves too declined by USD 839-million to USD 47.48-billion while Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) declined by USD 67-million to USD 18.29-billion.

The country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declined by USD 26-million, concluding the reporting week at USD 48.66-billion.