Winning Bizness Desk

American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley predicts that India’s economy will maintain stability and could become one of the best-performing emerging markets by 2025, driven by robust domestic investments. If current market trends persist, the Sensex could rise by 28.5% over the next year, reaching a level of 105,000. Morgan Stanley suggests that the Sensex could achieve this level if crude oil prices remain consistently below $70 per barrel. Lower oil prices are expected to reduce inflation, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates more aggressively than anticipated.

Base Case Scenario

In a base case scenario of moderate market trends, Morgan Stanley estimates the Sensex could reach 93,000 within a year, representing a 13.8% increase from current levels. This projection assumes reduced fiscal deficits, increased private investment, and a growing gap between real growth and real interest rates, contributing to economic stability.

Bear Case Scenario

However, in a bear case scenario marked by economic downturns, the Sensex could fall by 14.3% to 70,000. This would occur if crude oil prices surge to $110 per barrel and the U.S. economy enters a recession, negatively impacting global markets.

Optimism from Mark Mobius

Mark Mobius, chairman of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, remains optimistic about India’s growth. He expects a 20% return from Indian markets over the next 12-18 months, stating that India is poised to outperform China.

Leading in Green Investments

India has surpassed China to secure the second position globally in green investments, driven by a surge in renewable energy initiatives. In the third quarter, deals worth approximately ₹20,000 crore ($2.4 billion) were completed, four times more than China and second only to the United States.

Market Recap: Sensex Flat After 5-Day Rally

The five-day upward trend in Indian markets came to a halt on Friday following the RBI’s monetary policy announcement. The Sensex closed flat at 81,709, down by 57 points, while the Nifty fell by 31 points to settle at 24,678. Profit booking in IT, tech, and energy stocks led to a decline, while gains were observed in metal, consumer durables, auto, services, telecom, and industrial stocks. India’s strong domestic investment environment, coupled with its leadership in green investments and resilience against global challenges, continues to position the nation as a key player in the global economy.